It is the most difficult task of the season - trying to predict who will finish where in the Premier League.
Last term I was only 19 places out with my prediction for champions Leicester City, although I suspect I was not on my own getting that one badly wrong.
After a summer of change in the top flight - with a whole host of new managers and top-quality players - it is a task that remains as painful as ever.
But with the new season starting on Saturday, here is how I think the season will look at the very end - with the caveat that what happens in the remainder of the transfer window could yet have a significant impact.
Phil McNulty's predicted 2016-17 Premier League positions at a glancePositionClubPosition (cont)Club (cont)1Manchester City11Crystal Palace2Manchester United12Southampton3Chelsea13Sunderland4Arsenal14West Bromwich Albion5Tottenham15Swansea City6Liverpool16Bournemouth7West Ham17Middlesbrough8Leicester City18Watford9Everton19Burnley10Stoke City20Hull
Manchester City
This season: Champions
Last season: 4th
The arrival of the world's most celebrated coach, Pep Guardiola, is the fulfilment of a long-held dream for Manchester City's owners - he is the man they have always wanted at the head of their football organisation. The Etihad house has been built waiting for him to move in.
City's run to the Champions League semi-final and a Capital One Cup final win barely covered up a campaign of Premier League under-achievement with Manuel Pellegrini in charge last season. They were left hanging on until the last game of the campaign to secure a Champions League place.
Guardiola is the perfect choice to get more out of a quality squad that has too often seemed short of inspiration and motivation. He is a fiercely driven perfectionist who will not let standards slip.
Midfielder Ilkay Gundogan will add guile when he is fit while winger Nolito is a shrewd capture from Celta Vigo.
Now that City have signed defender John Stones from Everton, responsibility will lie with him for curing the defensive ills caused by the poor form of Eliaquim Mangala and Nicolas Otamendi, as well as captain Vincent Kompany's injuries.
I'm backing a Guardiola-inspired City to reclaim the Premier League title.
